Constructing Malawian Ordinary Actuarial Tables: Reflection of the COVID-19 Era

  • Nelson Christopher Dzupire Mathematical Science Department, University of Malawi
  • Rita Gunde Mathematical Science Department, University of Malawi
  • Prince Blackson Chirwa Basic Science Department, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources
##article.subject##: actuarial life table, Whittaker-Henderson, forecast, logistic regression model, pandemics

##article.abstract##

An actuarial life table, often known as a mortality table, offers data on the probability or mortality rate within a given population at various ages during a certain period of time. These data are crucial for studying patterns of mortality, forecasting population growth, calculating life expectancy, and pinpointing the main causes of high mortality rates in a population. The lack of mortality tables in Malawi's insurance market is a significant problem for insurance providers. Therefore, the objective of this study is to construct ordinary life tables specifically for Malawi, covering the period from 2016 to 2022. In this study, the raw death rates are smoothed using the Whittaker-Henderson method before being predicted for a five-year period using the logistic regression model. The Malawian ordinary life table was created to show how likely it is that an individual will die increases with age. Additionally, it has been noted that males have a higher mortality rate than females, and further research has revealed that pandemics have an impact on raising mortality rate

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##submissions.published##
2024-05-18
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